Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 55.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 74.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Stepan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Stepan
Aho
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
8
Stepan
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
6
2
Stepan
Aho
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
50.2% (6,646)
-3.7%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
58.9% (1,310)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
46.5% (465)
-2.3%
On power play, Aho has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Stepan
Aho
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Stepan
Aho
P1
47.5%
51.1%
P2
45.6%
52.1%
P3
46.8%
50.8%
OT
40.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2018 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 13:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |