Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 47.2%). Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Connolly 47.3% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 53.2%
Defensive zone
Connolly 50.1%
Neutral zone
Connolly 50.7%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Stepan
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Stepan
Connolly
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Connolly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
6
Stepan
Connolly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
47.4% (1,307)
-0.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
50.2% (251)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
41.9% (186)
+2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Stepan
Connolly
Home
47.6% (6,608)
48.5% (870)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Stepan
Connolly
P1
47.5%
47.4%
P2
45.6%
47.7%
P3
46.8%
47.0%
OT
40.7%
37.8%
Final 5 min
47.5%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 30, 2011 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 30, 2011 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 13:45 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |