Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Novak 43.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 57.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 65.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Stepan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Stepan
Novak
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Stepan
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
41.8% (1,568)
+4.7%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
51.5% (134)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.0% (2)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Stepan
Novak
Home
47.6% (6,608)
45.1% (831)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Stepan
Novak
P1
47.5%
43.7%
P2
45.6%
42.8%
P3
46.8%
41.1%
OT
40.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |