Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Johnson 49.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 36-25 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 59.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 59.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Stepan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
36
(61 meetings)
25
36
Stepan
Johnson
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
11
9
Stepan
Johnson
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
6
15
Stepan
Johnson
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
8
12
Stepan
Johnson
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
49.8% (5,396)
-3.3%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
54.6% (885)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
42.3% (707)
+1.9%
On power play, Johnson has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Johnson is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,203).
Home / Away
Stepan
Johnson
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Stepan
Johnson
P1
47.5%
50.1%
P2
45.6%
50.6%
P3
46.8%
48.4%
OT
40.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:55 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 03:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 05:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2 | 18:10 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |