Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 49.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Brassard 70.0%
Defensive zone
Brassard 72.4%
Neutral zone
Brassard 72.1%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Brassard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Brassard
Hertl
Last 10: Brassard 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
11
Brassard
Hertl
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
11
6
Brassard
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
10
Brassard
Hertl
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (8,464)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.2%
Power Play
52.3% (1,260)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (179)
46.3% (806)
+4.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Brassard is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (6,507).
Brassard shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Brassard
Hertl
Home
50.6% (5,020)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
47.6% (4,901)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Brassard
Hertl
P1
49.0%
53.6%
P2
49.8%
54.2%
P3
48.4%
55.3%
OT
51.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
49.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:46 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |