Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Toninato wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toninato 45.4% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 71.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 88.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 80.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 86.1%
13.9%
86.1%
Toninato
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toninato
Eller
Last 6: Toninato 5-1 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
4
0
Toninato
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toninato
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toninato
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (778)
51.1% (10,321)
-5.2%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
52.8% (621)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (45)
46.6% (1,759)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Toninato is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Toninato shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
Toninato
Eller
Home
47.0% (413)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
42.9% (431)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Toninato
Eller
P1
40.8%
51.2%
P2
46.3%
50.1%
P3
47.5%
50.2%
Final 5 min
41.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.9%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 01:19 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:46 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |