Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Caggiula wins 38.2% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 40.0% vs Ward 48.4% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 54.0%
Defensive zone
Ward 81.0%
Neutral zone
Ward 69.5%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Caggiula
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Caggiula
Ward
Last 9: Caggiula 5-4 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
2
0
Caggiula
Ward
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
1
0
Caggiula
Ward
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
2
4
Caggiula
Ward
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (390)
51.3% (1,186)
-13.4%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
53.4% (238)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
18.2% (11)
35.5% (366)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Ward has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Caggiula is 38.2% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Caggiula shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Ward
Home
41.9% (217)
50.3% (870)
Away
32.7% (196)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Caggiula
Ward
P1
37.7%
47.6%
P2
37.7%
47.5%
P3
37.3%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
40.4%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
37.5%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Joel Ward |