Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Caggiula wins 38.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 40.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Caggiula 75.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 55.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.8%
Result
Drake Caggiula favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Caggiula
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Caggiula
Dowd
Last 5: Caggiula 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Caggiula
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
1
0
Caggiula
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Caggiula
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (390)
52.3% (6,036)
-14.4%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
56.1% (164)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
18.2% (11)
44.1% (1,638)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Caggiula is 38.2% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Caggiula shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Dowd
Home
41.9% (217)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
32.7% (196)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Caggiula
Dowd
P1
37.7%
51.5%
P2
37.7%
50.4%
P3
37.3%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
40.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
37.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 01:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 01:49 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |