Scouting Report
Drew Stafford holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stafford wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stafford 48.5% vs Connolly 47.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stafford 55.8%
Defensive zone
Connolly 60.6%
Neutral zone
Connolly 51.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Stafford
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stafford
Connolly
Last 6: Stafford 3-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
1
0
Stafford
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Stafford
Connolly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stafford
1
0
Stafford
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stafford
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (571)
47.4% (1,307)
+2.7%
Power Play
49.2% (189)
50.2% (251)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
34.2% (79)
41.9% (186)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Stafford is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (285).
Stafford shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Stafford
Connolly
Home
50.4% (452)
48.5% (870)
Away
45.9% (388)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Stafford
Connolly
P1
50.0%
47.4%
P2
47.5%
47.7%
P3
47.9%
47.0%
OT
42.9%
37.8%
Final 5 min
46.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.3%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 05:07 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |