Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Penner wins 39.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 43.3% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 84.3%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 84.1%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 59.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Penner
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Penner
Gaustad
Last 8: Penner 4-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
2
0
Penner
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
4
Penner
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Penner
2
0
Penner
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (214)
58.2% (4,334)
-17.5%
Power Play
45.5% (112)
65.4% (188)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (60)
54.8% (1,290)
-18.1%
On power play, Gaustad has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Penner is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (258).
Penner shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Penner
Gaustad
Home
44.4% (207)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
38.3% (183)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Penner
Gaustad
P1
36.1%
58.2%
P2
36.6%
56.4%
P3
53.6%
58.3%
OT
25.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
46.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |