Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 53.2% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 77.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 74.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 75.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Cozens
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Carlsson
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Cozens
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
3
Cozens
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (634)
44.9% (690)
+8.3%
Power Play
57.7% (97)
47.0% (83)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (84)
+0.0%
On power play, Cozens has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Cozens is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Cozens shoots right. Carlsson is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Cozens
Carlsson
Home
54.8% (383)
42.5% (428)
Away
52.3% (354)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Cozens
Carlsson
P1
56.0%
45.1%
P2
51.2%
39.0%
P3
53.9%
48.5%
OT
40.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
50.7%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
Carlsson
36.0%▼
38.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |