Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 53.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (634)
49.7% (1,038)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.7% (97)
63.7% (157)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
54.8% (383)
53.1% (618)
Away
52.3% (354)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
56.0%
49.3%
P2
51.2%
53.0%
P3
53.9%
50.7%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |