Scouting Report
Reese Johnson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.5% vs Johnson 51.5% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 83.3%
Defensive zone
Johnson 69.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 56.5%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Cozens
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cozens
Johnson
Last 7: Cozens 2-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Cozens
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Cozens
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,103)
53.5% (434)
-4.5%
Power Play
50.3% (717)
80.0% (5)
-29.7%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
40.7% (81)
+0.3%
On power play, Johnson has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Cozens is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,457).
Cozens shoots right. Johnson is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Cozens
Johnson
Home
48.3% (2,685)
50.8% (252)
Away
48.7% (2,574)
52.6% (268)
By Period
Cozens
Johnson
P1
49.1%
52.1%
P2
47.8%
47.4%
P3
48.9%
56.4%
OT
34.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
48.5%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:20 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 02:39 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |