Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.9% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Howden 68.8%
Defensive zone
Howden 71.6%
Neutral zone
Howden 70.1%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Howden
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Howden
Larkin
Last 10: Howden 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
7
Howden
Larkin
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
7
4
Howden
Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
6
Howden
Larkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (2,926)
51.6% (9,056)
-2.1%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
58.6% (2,140)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (320)
50.2% (1,124)
-7.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Howden is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,170).
Howden shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Howden
Larkin
Home
48.2% (1,630)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
49.6% (1,727)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Howden
Larkin
P1
49.5%
52.7%
P2
47.9%
53.1%
P3
49.8%
52.0%
OT
35.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
48.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |