Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Luostarinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Luostarinen 46.5% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Larkin
Luostarinen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Luostarinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Luostarinen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
0
1
Larkin
Luostarinen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Luostarinen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Luostarinen
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.7% (92)
+5.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
45.0% (20)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
28.6% (14)
+19.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Luostarinen shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Luostarinen is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Home / Away
Larkin
Luostarinen
Home
51.7% (686)
44.4% (36)
Away
53.0% (658)
43.3% (90)
By Period
Larkin
Luostarinen
P1
52.5%
38.9%
P2
52.7%
44.7%
P3
51.4%
45.1%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Luostarinen
46.0%▲
44.5%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 09:14 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |