Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Staal 50.6% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 50.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.2%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
18
(35 meetings)
17
18
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
9
9
Larkin
Staal
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Staal
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
7
Larkin
Staal
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
50.5% (10,347)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
53.5% (2,023)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
44.2% (781)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
53.9% (6,277)
52.6% (6,558)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
48.6% (6,664)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
52.7%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
51.1%
P3
52.0%
50.4%
OT
58.4%
55.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 01:22 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2020 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 1 | 07:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |