Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Malkin 45.9% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 37-33 in 70 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 74.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.9%
Neutral zone
Malkin 58.3%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Larkin
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
37
(70 meetings)
33
37
Larkin
Malkin
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
7
18
Larkin
Malkin
25 total
Defensive Zone
Even
10
10
Larkin
Malkin
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
9
Larkin
Malkin
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
45.6% (10,081)
+6.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
50.1% (668)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
32.2% (59)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Home / Away
Larkin
Malkin
Home
53.9% (6,277)
47.6% (5,395)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
44.0% (5,436)
By Period
Larkin
Malkin
P1
52.7%
45.9%
P2
53.1%
46.2%
P3
52.0%
45.2%
OT
58.4%
49.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 14:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:09 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |