Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs McBain 50.9% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Larkin
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
McBain
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Larkin
McBain
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.5% (569)
-1.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
42.1% (19)
+17.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
36.2% (47)
+12.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Larkin
McBain
Home
51.7% (686)
52.4% (309)
Away
53.0% (658)
49.7% (326)
By Period
Larkin
McBain
P1
52.5%
54.0%
P2
52.7%
52.7%
P3
51.4%
46.5%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |