Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McCann on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McCann shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs McCann 43.0% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
McCann leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
McCann 57.9%
Defensive zone
McCann 56.2%
Neutral zone
McCann 57.8%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Larkin
McCann
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Larkin
McCann
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 McCann
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCann
3
4
Larkin
McCann
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
McCann
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCann
1
4
Larkin
McCann
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCann
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
43.1% (3,178)
+8.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
40.0% (260)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.2% (173)
+8.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCann shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. McCann is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,303).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCann
Home
53.9% (6,277)
43.1% (1,758)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
42.5% (1,855)
By Period
Larkin
McCann
P1
52.7%
44.4%
P2
53.1%
41.7%
P3
52.0%
42.7%
OT
58.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:24 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 1 | 09:18 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 13:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |