Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Spezza 54.7% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-10 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 58.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 55.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Larkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
10
(24 meetings)
14
10
Larkin
Spezza
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
6
Larkin
Spezza
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
4
Larkin
Spezza
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
54.4% (7,990)
-2.8%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
56.8% (1,726)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
52.7% (643)
-2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Larkin
Spezza
Home
53.9% (6,277)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Larkin
Spezza
P1
52.7%
55.7%
P2
53.1%
54.4%
P3
52.0%
54.1%
OT
58.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |