Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 57 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Pageau 54.8% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 85-50 in 135 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 86.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.6%
78.6%
21.4%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
85
(135 meetings)
50
85
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
19
25
Larkin
Pageau
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
17
40
Larkin
Pageau
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
14
20
Larkin
Pageau
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
55.8% (9,525)
-4.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
57.0% (1,008)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
49.6% (2,077)
+0.6%
On even strength, Pageau has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,869).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
53.9% (6,277)
56.3% (6,267)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
52.7%
54.7%
P2
53.1%
56.3%
P3
52.0%
53.5%
OT
58.4%
54.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |