Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 26-24 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Larkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
26
(50 meetings)
24
26
Larkin
Pavelski
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
11
Larkin
Pavelski
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
11
Larkin
Pavelski
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
4
Larkin
Pavelski
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
58.2% (2,122)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
50.9% (1,138)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pavelski
Home
53.9% (6,277)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Larkin
Pavelski
P1
52.7%
53.5%
P2
53.1%
55.2%
P3
52.0%
53.9%
OT
58.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2022 | OT | 01:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 12:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 12:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |