Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Toews 60.4% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 78.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 54.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 68.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Larkin
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Toews
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Larkin
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Toews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
62.6% (728)
-11.5%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
59.4% (143)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
46.9% (32)
+1.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Larkin
Toews
Home
51.7% (686)
61.1% (455)
Away
53.0% (658)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Larkin
Toews
P1
52.5%
59.7%
P2
52.7%
66.7%
P3
51.4%
58.4%
OT
61.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |