Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 18 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Staal 54.6% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 54.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
18
(38 meetings)
20
18
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
10
Larkin
Staal
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
5
Larkin
Staal
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Staal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
56.2% (989)
-5.1%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
66.0% (159)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
42.7% (253)
+5.5%
On power play, Staal has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
51.7% (686)
55.4% (699)
Away
53.0% (658)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
52.5%
55.7%
P2
52.7%
54.7%
P3
51.4%
53.4%
OT
61.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |