Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bailey 45.5% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 86.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 85.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Larkin
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Bailey
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
45.8% (1,991)
+5.8%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
48.1% (295)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
39.9% (281)
+10.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bailey
Home
53.9% (6,277)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Larkin
Bailey
P1
52.7%
46.5%
P2
53.1%
44.8%
P3
52.0%
44.4%
OT
58.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |