Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Stenlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
11
Larkin
Stenlund
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
56.2% (650)
-5.1%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
53.2% (47)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
51.6% (312)
-3.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
51.7% (686)
56.9% (483)
Away
53.0% (658)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
52.5%
54.2%
P2
52.7%
53.2%
P3
51.4%
56.9%
OT
61.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |