Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Komarov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Komarov 47.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.4%
Defensive zone
Komarov 60.4%
Neutral zone
Komarov 53.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Larkin
Komarov
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
Komarov
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 Komarov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Komarov
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
2
Larkin
Komarov
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Komarov
1
2
Larkin
Komarov
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Komarov
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
48.6% (695)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
37.5% (16)
+21.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
45.6% (417)
+4.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Komarov shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Komarov is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Larkin
Komarov
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.2% (537)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
45.7% (591)
By Period
Larkin
Komarov
P1
52.7%
47.6%
P2
53.1%
47.3%
P3
52.0%
47.5%
OT
58.4%
41.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 14:28 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 03:24 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 1 | 18:15 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |