Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 52.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 79.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Larkin
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Scheifele
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Larkin
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Scheifele
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
46.5% (919)
+4.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
48.7% (187)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
50.0% (54)
-1.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Home / Away
Larkin
Scheifele
Home
51.7% (686)
46.6% (605)
Away
53.0% (658)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Larkin
Scheifele
P1
52.5%
52.3%
P2
52.7%
45.3%
P3
51.4%
43.9%
OT
61.3%
27.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |