Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs McTavish 49.1% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 61.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
47.6% (618)
+3.5%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
58.3% (103)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
33.3% (6)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
51.7% (686)
52.2% (391)
Away
53.0% (658)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
52.5%
50.2%
P2
52.7%
47.7%
P3
51.4%
49.2%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |