Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Barron 46.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 93.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 87.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Larkin
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
Barron
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Barron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
1
Larkin
Barron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
48.6% (381)
+2.5%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
33.3% (3)
+26.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
41.7% (187)
+6.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Barron is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barron
Home
51.7% (686)
44.4% (306)
Away
53.0% (658)
48.3% (265)
By Period
Larkin
Barron
P1
52.5%
45.5%
P2
52.7%
49.8%
P3
51.4%
43.1%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |