Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.9%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Thompson 52.9% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.9%
Defensive zone
Thompson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Thompson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
9
Larkin
Thompson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Larkin
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
54.1% (5,812)
-2.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
54.8% (135)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.9% (1,381)
+2.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
53.9% (6,277)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.7%
53.2%
P2
53.1%
52.9%
P3
52.0%
52.8%
OT
58.4%
47.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 05:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 2 | 17:15 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |