Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
Larkin
MacKinnon
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
6
Larkin
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
49.7% (1,038)
+1.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
63.7% (157)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
34.4% (32)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
51.7% (686)
53.1% (618)
Away
53.0% (658)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
52.5%
49.3%
P2
52.7%
53.0%
P3
51.4%
50.7%
OT
61.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |