Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 76.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
45.8% (755)
+6.0%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
48.3% (60)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
27.6% (29)
+19.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
55.6% (662)
49.5% (396)
Away
48.3% (542)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
49.9%
50.2%
P2
52.7%
43.8%
P3
53.0%
41.4%
OT
68.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.3%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 16:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |