Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 46.2% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 9: Larkin 2-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Larkin
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Larkin
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (391)
49.3% (1,167)
-3.8%
Power Play
41.4% (29)
61.0% (187)
-19.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
47.9% (167)
+2.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
47.0% (181)
57.7% (728)
Away
44.2% (251)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
42.7%
50.1%
P2
52.4%
52.5%
P3
41.8%
49.3%
OT
20.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.4%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |