Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 62.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 57.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Larkin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Bjugstad
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Larkin
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Larkin
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
49.7% (292)
+1.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.0% (6)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
47.2% (36)
+1.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bjugstad
Home
51.7% (686)
48.7% (193)
Away
53.0% (658)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Larkin
Bjugstad
P1
52.5%
41.5%
P2
52.7%
57.3%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |