Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Larkin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Larkin
Bjugstad
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
4
Larkin
Bjugstad
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Bjugstad
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Larkin
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
48.6% (6,646)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
55.2% (829)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
44.3% (614)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bjugstad
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Larkin
Bjugstad
P1
52.7%
48.9%
P2
53.1%
49.1%
P3
52.0%
48.5%
OT
58.4%
61.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 03:57 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2022 | OT | 00:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 03:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |