Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Foligno 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 50.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Larkin
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Foligno
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Larkin
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
49.5% (291)
+1.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
55.8% (43)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
47.2% (53)
+1.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Larkin
Foligno
Home
51.7% (686)
48.9% (178)
Away
53.0% (658)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Larkin
Foligno
P1
52.5%
43.0%
P2
52.7%
55.9%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |