Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Foligno 48.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 56.8%
Defensive zone
Foligno 52.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 53.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Larkin
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Larkin
Foligno
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
4
5
Larkin
Foligno
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
4
Larkin
Foligno
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
4
Larkin
Foligno
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (8,914)
48.3% (2,764)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,099)
52.3% (723)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
50.1% (1,102)
43.4% (447)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,773).
Larkin shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,467).
Home / Away
Larkin
Foligno
Home
54.0% (6,206)
49.8% (1,993)
Away
51.4% (5,909)
47.1% (1,943)
By Period
Larkin
Foligno
P1
52.7%
47.9%
P2
53.1%
50.0%
P3
52.1%
48.4%
OT
58.6%
29.7%
Final 5 min
53.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.7%
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |