Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 55.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 81.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Larkin
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Larkin
Schmaltz
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
3
Larkin
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.9% (697)
+5.2%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
47.9% (117)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
48.0% (25)
+0.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Larkin
Schmaltz
Home
51.7% (686)
44.9% (434)
Away
53.0% (658)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Larkin
Schmaltz
P1
52.5%
41.5%
P2
52.7%
46.7%
P3
51.4%
51.1%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |