Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Acciari 50.8% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.3%
Defensive zone
Acciari 69.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Larkin
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Acciari
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Acciari
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
3
Larkin
Acciari
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.7% (313)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
33.3% (18)
+26.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
49.7% (195)
-1.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Acciari is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Larkin
Acciari
Home
51.7% (686)
52.6% (291)
Away
53.0% (658)
48.9% (235)
By Period
Larkin
Acciari
P1
52.5%
53.7%
P2
52.7%
51.1%
P3
51.4%
48.5%
OT
61.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |