Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Acciari 51.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 50-46 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.9%
Defensive zone
Acciari 79.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Larkin
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
46
(96 meetings)
50
46
Larkin
Acciari
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
39
3
Larkin
Acciari
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
5
36
Larkin
Acciari
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
6
7
Larkin
Acciari
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.8% (3,304)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
48.3% (87)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.0% (1,073)
+3.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,268).
Home / Away
Larkin
Acciari
Home
53.9% (6,277)
51.9% (2,139)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
50.7% (2,325)
By Period
Larkin
Acciari
P1
52.7%
52.3%
P2
53.1%
51.5%
P3
52.0%
50.2%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |