Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Brown 54.6% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.8%
Defensive zone
Brown 73.2%
Neutral zone
Brown 57.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Larkin
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Brown
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Brown
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
4
Larkin
Brown
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Brown
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
56.5% (726)
-4.9%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
62.5% (8)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.8% (136)
+2.4%
On even strength, Brown has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Larkin
Brown
Home
53.9% (6,277)
57.4% (364)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Larkin
Brown
P1
52.7%
51.4%
P2
53.1%
54.6%
P3
52.0%
58.8%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |