Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Greig 51.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 64.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Larkin
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Greig
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
Larkin
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
51.9% (347)
-0.8%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
66.7% (24)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
44.8% (87)
+3.4%
On power play, Greig has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Larkin
Greig
Home
51.7% (686)
50.4% (254)
Away
53.0% (658)
52.5% (204)
By Period
Larkin
Greig
P1
52.5%
45.9%
P2
52.7%
60.1%
P3
51.4%
49.2%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |