Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Greig 49.0% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Greig leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.6%
Defensive zone
Greig 71.8%
Neutral zone
Greig 51.0%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Larkin
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Larkin
Greig
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Greig
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
6
Larkin
Greig
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Greig
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
48.7% (1,144)
+2.9%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
56.8% (74)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.2% (178)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Larkin
Greig
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.9% (688)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
48.0% (708)
By Period
Larkin
Greig
P1
52.7%
46.0%
P2
53.1%
51.8%
P3
52.0%
49.1%
OT
58.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |