Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.2%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Thomas 51.9% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Larkin
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Larkin
Thomas
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
50.3% (652)
+0.8%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
61.5% (104)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
54.2% (120)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
51.7% (686)
52.0% (400)
Away
53.0% (658)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
52.5%
49.6%
P2
52.7%
55.4%
P3
51.4%
51.0%
OT
61.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |