Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Poehling 48.0% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 56.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Larkin
Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
50.4% (680)
+0.7%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
58.3% (12)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
38.8% (219)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
51.7% (686)
47.4% (422)
Away
53.0% (658)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
52.5%
53.3%
P2
52.7%
40.3%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |