Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Carrick 54.2% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 81.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 62.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Carrick
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Larkin
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
55.5% (470)
-4.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
66.7% (3)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
50.0% (58)
-1.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
51.7% (686)
58.6% (261)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
52.5%
55.9%
P2
52.7%
53.5%
P3
51.4%
55.6%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |