Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.3%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carrick 52.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 78.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 72.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
Larkin
Carrick
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
0
Larkin
Carrick
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
8
Larkin
Carrick
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
52.2% (2,544)
-0.6%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
61.3% (75)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
50.8% (435)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
53.9% (6,277)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
52.7%
51.8%
P2
53.1%
52.3%
P3
52.0%
52.6%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |