Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 55.0%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 60.9%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 64.7%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Larkin
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Larkin
Reinhart
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Reinhart
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
3
Larkin
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
44.1% (324)
+8.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
40.3% (72)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
33.9% (118)
+22.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Reinhart is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
Larkin
Reinhart
Home
54.7% (783)
40.5% (232)
Away
54.3% (816)
41.8% (282)
By Period
Larkin
Reinhart
P1
55.9%
46.4%
P2
56.1%
32.6%
P3
51.1%
45.4%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
54.5%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |