Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Steel 50.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 57.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 55.7%
Neutral zone
Steel 57.0%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Larkin
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Larkin
Steel
Last 5: Larkin 1-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Larkin
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Larkin
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.5% (200)
-1.4%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
71.4% (7)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
40.0% (45)
+8.2%
On power play, Steel has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Larkin
Steel
Home
51.7% (686)
49.5% (109)
Away
53.0% (658)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Larkin
Steel
P1
52.5%
49.5%
P2
52.7%
47.5%
P3
51.4%
56.6%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |